Tag: Currency

Pound Vs. Euro

by

While I’m fondest of analyzing all currencies relative to the Dollar (after all, it’s what I’m most familiar with and is involved in almost half of all forex trades), sometimes its interesting to look at cross rates.

Take the Pound/Euro, for example, arguably one of the most important crosses, and one of a handful that often moves independently of the Dollar. If you chart the performance of this pair over the last two years, however, you can see the distinct lack of volatility. It has fluctuated around an axis of 1.15 GBP/EUR, never straying more than 5% in either direction. In fact, it’s sitting right at this level as I compose this post.

Read more →

The Earthquake and the FX Market

by

The tragedy in Japan is only just now beginning to be understood as various reports come in of thousands of deaths, massive flooding, and nuclear facilities that are in danger. Because of this, traders will have to be pragmatic as far as how they approach the FX markets, especially when it comes to the Yen.

Read more →

British Pound Continues Gradual Ascent

by

The British Pound has risen almost 15% against the Dollar over the last twelve months. It seems that the markets are ignoring the fiscal concerns that sent the Pound tumbling in 2010, and focusing more on inflation and the prospect of interest rate hikes. At this point, the Bank of England (BOE) is now racing with the European Central Bank (ECB) to be the first “G4″ Central Bank to hike rates.

Read more →

Currency Investing: Where to Turn When the Dollar, Euro and Pound Let You Down

by

If you’re looking to short Western currencies, one possibility is to short them against emerging-market currencies, such as the Chinese yuan, the Indian rupee, the Brazilian real and the Russian ruble.

India and Brazil are running large government budget deficits, in spite of their amazing booms, and both currencies are highly vulnerable to a sudden monetary tightening or a downturn in the global economy.

China, tightly manages its currency. There is certainly potential for the yuan to rise, provided that China maintains its present policy of allowing fairly free inflows of foreign capital while barring outflows of its own savers’ money.

Canada and Australia are reasonably well-run countries with large commodity exposures. So they should do well as long as the current commodity boom continues.

In the Asia-Pacific region, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore all have superbly-run economies that are structurally sound.

A currency portfolio that contains those five currencies – the South Korean won, the new Taiwan dollar, the Singapore dollar, the Canadian dollar, and the Australian dollar – could thus be relied upon to maintain its value better than most.

Read more →