Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are dropping bets against Treasuries.
Economic growth is falling short of forecasts and market participants may need to reduce their yield predictions, Jim Caron, the New York-based global head of interest-rate strategy at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a report yesterday. Goldman Sachs cited Federal Reserve comments and a slower-than-forecast pace of inflation in a report the same day.
If you’re looking to short Western currencies, one possibility is to short them against emerging-market currencies, such as the Chinese yuan, the Indian rupee, the Brazilian real and the Russian ruble.
India and Brazil are running large government budget deficits, in spite of their amazing booms, and both currencies are highly vulnerable to a sudden monetary tightening or a downturn in the global economy.
China, tightly manages its currency. There is certainly potential for the yuan to rise, provided that China maintains its present policy of allowing fairly free inflows of foreign capital while barring outflows of its own savers’ money.
Canada and Australia are reasonably well-run countries with large commodity exposures. So they should do well as long as the current commodity boom continues.
In the Asia-Pacific region, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore all have superbly-run economies that are structurally sound.
A currency portfolio that contains those five currencies – the South Korean won, the new Taiwan dollar, the Singapore dollar, the Canadian dollar, and the Australian dollar – could thus be relied upon to maintain its value better than most.
The new star of the show for commodities is sugar, which stormed out to a new high by 1.9% after word that a cold front had virtually wiped out Florida’s sugar cane crop, which is the largest in the United States.